Ten years on from the Paris Agreement: Are we any closer to 1.5°C?

It’s been a decade since world leaders came together in Paris in 2015, united by a single goal: to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Ten years on, has it kept its promises? 

What is the Paris Agreement?

Adopted in 2015 by 195 parties, the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty that aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. Each country set its own plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), outlining how it would cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. It was hailed as a landmark moment of unity, but success does depend on whether those promises translate into real action.

Where it’s Succeeding

The Paris Agreement’s ambition has catalysed tangible transformation in how nations generate and consume energy. According to the Ethical Corporation Magazine, the renewables’ share of global power jumped from 23% in 2015, the year Paris Agreement was signed, to around 33% by 2025, directly reflecting countries’ NDC commitments to decarbonise their energy sectors.

This shift has been accelerated by cost reductions that make climate action economically compelling. Solar power costs plummeted by 85% since 2010, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, making it about 41% cheaper than coal power, with wind energy 53% cheaper. 

The low prices of renewable energy has allowed countries to exceed their original NDC targets. A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlighted that in 2024 global renewable energy capacity grew by a record 582 gigawatts, fundamentally reshaping how the world generates electricity and putting the Agreement’s 1.5°C pathway within reach.

The Paris framework has similarly transformed transportation, with many nations embedding EV targets into their updated NDCs. Since 2015, EV sales soared from just 500,000 to over 17 million in 2024, a 30-fold increase, the Ethical Corporation Magazine reported. Globally, EVs now account for 26% of all new passenger car sales, with over 98% of its new car sales in September being EVs, demonstrating how ambitious commitments can reshape entire sectors.

Some nations are genuinely leading by example, using their NDCs to pursue near-complete decarbonisation.

Costa Rica generates over 90% of its electricity from renewables, mainly by hydropower. Kenya also generates 90% of its electricity from renewables and led East Africa in doubling household electricity access from 37% to 79% between 2013 and 2023 while keeping emissions low, the International Energy Agency reported, proving that climate ambition can advance both development and decarbonisation goals at the same time. Perhaps most significantly, the EU slashed emissions to 37% below 1990 levels while still growing its economy, showing us that the Agreement’s framework enables nations to pursue prosperity and climate action in tandem rather than as competing priorities.

What Still Needs Work?

Despite all this progress, the targets of the Paris Agreement have become more and more out of reach. 

The math is sobering. To stay below 1.5°C, emissions need to fall 43% by 2030, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned. Instead, current NDCs would deliver only about 10% cuts by 2030, when we actually need 60%, said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. 

However, global emissions in 2024 hit a record 53.2 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, up 1.3% from 2023, the Joint Research Centre reported. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report found that if countries meet their current climate pledges, global temperatures are projected to rise by up to 2.3–2.5°C by 2100. But under existing policies, the world is on track for about 2.8°C of warming by then, far above the Paris target.

Guterres has called the failure to strengthen climate action a “moral failure and deadly negligence,” warning that the world will overshoot the 1.5°C target in the early 2030s unless action accelerates. The funding gap remains wide. Wealthy nations finally reached the $100 billion annual climate finance goal in 2022, delivering $116 billion. But much of it came as loans rather than grants, and developing countries now face a $310 billion per year shortfall in adaptation funding alone.

While the funding gap is clearly a major issue in meeting the Paris Agreement target, it is undeniable that the world’s energy supply still remains highly dependent on fossil fuels.

About 80% of the world’s energy currently comes from fossil fuels and the International Energy Agency reported that coal demand hit an all-time high in 2022. The human cost of inaction is already visible, with record breaking heatwaves and wildfires scorching over Asia, Europe and America over the past few years. Devastating floods have hit many countries including Libya, Nepal and with over 18 million people in Bangladesh being affected by severe monsoon conditions, according to the UN. These aren’t distant threats but the lived reality of insufficient climate action.

The Next Decade Is Critical

Ten years after Paris, the world has made real strides but not enough to claim victory.

The Paris Agreement fundamentally changed global climate politics. It sparked a renewable energy revolution, shifted corporate behaviour and made net-zero a household term. 

But scientists are increasingly blunt: the 1.5°C target is simply slipping out of reach. A Stanford study concluded there’s over a 99% chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C even with rapid action and the most ambitious decarbonisation plans, with roughly 50% chance of reaching 2°C.

Yet this does not mean giving up, every fraction of a degree matters. The goal for countries now is minimising how far they overshoot and how quickly they can bring temperatures back down. Guterres has called for a “paradigm shift” to make the overshoot as small, short and safe as possible through rapid emission cuts, stronger adaptation and resilience.

Now, as negotiators gather in Brazil for COP30, the world is taking stock. Paris was about pledges; Belém must be about action, said its President, André Corrêa do Lago. What is needed is the political will to turn ambitious targets into binding commitments. A decade of promises must become a decade of delivery.

Ten years on from the Paris Agreement

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By our COP30 reporter Davin Choy.