COP30: Where the Paris vision met today’s divided world

Nearly ten years after the Paris Agreement reset global climate ambition, COP30 arrived in Belém carrying the weight of a world that has not kept pace with its promises. 

Paris marked the moment countries agreed on a shared destination. The test in Brazil was whether any are now prepared to take responsibility for the route. The outcome was mixed: short of transformational, but stronger than many feared in an era of geopolitical strain. Yet, climate ambition is still afloat. 

The summit commenced with lofty expectations. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva impelled countries to finally outline a “roadmap” to further the COP28 pledge to move away from fossil fuels. Negotiations quickly exposed a hardening divide. 

Delegates from oil-rich Arab nations refused to join with the countries pushing for a fossil-fuel phaseout pathway, stressing the importance of harmonising development and climate action, an impasse that ensured the final decision text made no explicit reference to ending fossil energy. 

For a conference held in the Amazon, whose protection depends on the rapid decline of emissions, this was striking to many.

Deforestation was another area where ambition fell short. Brazil’s environmental minister, Marina Silva, hoped to secure a decisive global plan to halt forest loss. Countries stopped short of endorsing a clear deadline or enforcement, notably after being tied to the fossil fuel roadmap. For many attending, this COP underdelivered on what should have been one of its most symbolic priorities.

This COP has also been limited by geopolitical divides. Simon Stiell, The UN’s climate chief, stated that “denial, division and geopolitics has dealt international cooperation some heavy blows this year”. With reduced US absence, we have seen a shift in the balance of power. This was not the EU’s best COP, achieving very little from the deals, and the US’ refusal to attend hollowed out traditional US influence. 

And yet, despite these fractures, the negotiations did not collapse. With wars and nationalism straining international cooperation, even keeping multilateralism intact was not guaranteed.

“Climate cooperation is alive and kicking” – Simon Stiell, UN Climate Chief

Even with a restrained final deal, COP30 did secure a handful of accountability gains that matter. Countries collectively accepted that their next national plans must show how they intend to stay within the Paris temperature limits, a small but important shift toward measurable delivery. They also acknowledged the growing gap between current emissions and what the science demands, a recognition many feared would be softened. 

New structures like the Belém 1.5°C Mission, the Global Implementation Accelerator and a plurilateral effort to map credible routes away from fossil fuels give the process more structure than previous years. From a finance perspective, adaptation remained firmly within the New Collective Quantified Goal framework, with negotiators pushing for support to rise at least threefold by 2035 — one of the clearer signals of collective intent.

COP30 did not fulfil the transformative hopes placed upon it. But compared with the paralysis many expected, the summit’s modest steps toward implementation suggest that the Paris outline is not yet exhausted. 

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By COP30 reporter Ella Burden.